Future scenarios in logistics

The optimization of the supply chain does not end with an optimal location solution. When making investment decisions, certainty about their long-term impact is important. Infrastructural changes, price changes of the most important energy sources or, for example, the establishment of city environmental zones and their conditions influence your investment decision.

Future scenarios and sensitivity analyzes in logistics

Our open simulation model allows the development of future scenarios and sensitivity analyzes with regard to unknown variables and thus secures your location decisions.

Typical questions:

• What is the sensitivity of the optimal network structure to external influences (diesel prices, oil, gas, electricity, tolls, … )?
• How do falling or rising sales affect the logistical structure costs?
• What are the effects of takeovers or company acquisitions?
• Are there break-even points at which the network tilts into a different location level?

Service range, future scenarios and sensitivity analyses

• Simulation of future scenarios
• Simulation based on planned sales for 20xx
• Simulation based on falling and rising sales for 20xx
• Sensitivity analyzes with regard to future influences
• Securing location decisions in the event of different price developments
• Influences from infrastructural changes

Imagine the state needs more money and keeps turning the toll screw. What does this mean for your company and the logistics costs? Or the markets are going crazy and the price of oil is rising disproportionately, as was the case in 2008 or mid-2010.

The delivery costs explode without you and your employees being able to react.

You cannot influence these and similar influences through price changes, but you can check your logistical network for susceptibility to these external conditions and adjust them if necessary. As a logistics consultant, ORGAPLAN supports you with this sensitivity test. It is usually at the end of a strategic location simulation to secure the final result.

Look into the future and examine future scenarios for sustainable site development: 

Representation and evaluation of possible future scenarios and their boundary conditions

• Oil price development moderate / extreme
• Toll increase moderate / extreme
• Energy price development (gas, electricity) moderate / extreme
• Visionary alternative concepts (possibly state-funded) City logistics / Gigaliner / sustainable logistics